Introduction
The United Nations University Institute of Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) published its flagship annual report titled The Interconnected Disaster Risks Report 2023 in November 2023. Based on scientific facts, the report throws light on the interdependence of the world. It not only creates awareness regarding the global tipping points but also emphasises the need for taking prompt action so that possible devastating consequences can be prevented.
The report analyses some of the disasters that take place every year. Besides, it gives a detailed account of how they are inter-related to each other and how they are impacted by human actions. Further, it demonstrates the ways in which systems that are apparently stable may continue to degrade until a certain threshold is reached, eventually leading to disastrous consequences.
The United Nations University refers to the academic organisation of the United Nations. Based in Bonn (Germany), it functions as an international think tank. The UNU-EHS was established with an objective of performing pioneering research on environmental hazards, the risks involved, and potential adaptation along with global impact. UNU-EHS also offers the joint Master of Science degree programme—Geography of Environmental Risks and Human Security—with the University of Bonn, and hosts many international Ph.D. projects as well as capacity-development courses on global issues of environmental risks.
Risks and their Tipping Points
The report mentions six risk tipping points, i.e., the time when systems essential for our survival cannot form a barrier against risks and cannot function properly. This may have disastrous consequences.
1. Accelerating extinctions A large number of species have become extinct with the beginning of life on the Earth. Extinction is an important part of evolution on the Earth. However, it is a slow process that takes around millions of years to occur. Unfortunately, the process has become excessively rapid due to reckless human activities, including overexploitation of resources, environmental pollution, climate change, etc. The rate of extinction of species is much greater than usual rate (i.e., hundred times higher than usual) owing to unrestrained human acts. This may have disastrous impact on all life found on the Earth.
In an ecosystem, different species are connected to one another in complex networks. There are many species who share unique bonds with other species. They may be interconnected with a large number of other species. If such an organism goes extinct, other dependent species may also become extinct, thereby leading to co-extinction. It may have a ripple effect all through the ecosystem, even resulting in its collapse.
So, extinction may pose much greater risk than we think, as it is not a single species that goes extinct but many other dependent species also.
Tipping point With the extinction of a species that is connected with many other species, these other species may too get extinct, resulting in collapse of the ecosystem.
Interconnectedness This risk is interconnected with groundwater depletion. Intensifying agricultural activities and bringing more land into agriculture may reduce groundwater resources and pose risk to vulnerable species.
2. Groundwater depletion An important freshwater resource, groundwater, refers to the water stored in underground reservoirs known as ‘aquifers’. It takes more than thousands of years for these aquifers to accumulate water in them and refill them fully. Thus, groundwater is a non-renewable resource. These aquifers impose risks on the lives and livelihoods of the people dependent on them, as the water is depleting in these aquifers.
More than two billion people get drinking water supply through these aquifers. Approximately 70 per cent of water withdrawn from aquifers is used for agricultural purposes. Out of 37 major aquifers of the world, 21 are getting depleted at a rapid rate.
Considerable amounts of groundwater have been already withdrawn in some places of the world. For example, in the 1970s, Saudi Arabia had one of the largest groundwater resources in the world. It made use of this water to make an oasis. After a couple of decades, around 19 trillion litres of ground water per year were extracted by the farmers to produce wheat. Consequently, Saudi Arabia became the sixth largest wheat producer in the world for a while. However, this overexploitation of groundwater resources resulted in its 80 per cent depletion. Now, the country imports wheat and other crops.
As new technologies made the groundwater easily available to farmers, extraction rate also became higher. Resultantly, aquifers are being depleted at an alarming rate. The global agricultural system needs to be reformed so that groundwater resources can be sustainably used and preserved for future generations.
Tipping point A constant decline in the groundwater level will make it very difficult for farmers to access the groundwater and would pose a serious challenge as regards irrigation.
Interconnectedness This risk is interconnected with accelerating extinction. Increasing agricultural activities may deplete the groundwater resources and may endanger vulnerable species. Irrigation infrastructure may also be adversely impacted.
3. Mountain glacier melting Glaciers are an important source of fresh water found over the mountains. When glaciers melt, their water is used for various purposes, such as drinking, hydropower, irrigation, and domestic use. This water is used by all the ecosystems of the region. Glaciers shrink in size when the snow cannot replace the melted ice of the glaciers as fast as the glacier melts. Over the past few decades, glaciers have been shrinking, as they are melting at a double rate than usual due to global warming. Around 267 gigatonnes of ice was lost from glaciers each year from 2000 to 2019. It is estimated that approximately 50 per cent of glaciers (except for Greenland and Antarctica) will disappear by the end of the 21st century despite global warming being restricted to 1.5 °C.
With the shrinking of glaciers, the melted ice adds a large amount of water to the river, which flows into its basin from the high mountains. This aggravates the risk of flooding in coastal areas. Sometimes, this results in ‘glacial lake outburst floods.’ In such floods, a natural dam cannot contain melted water for long and releases it at any moment, leading to destruction. Ultimately, there is the largest amount of melting in the glacier that causes massive water runoff, called the ‘peak water’. Thereafter, not enough freshwater is available. It is expected that peak water will be found in the basins during the next 10 years. Scientists around the world have predicted that glaciers found on the highest mountains, such as those of Asia, will have peak water around the mid-21st century. Consequently, more than 90,000 glaciers found on the Himalayas, Hindukush, and Karakoram ranges would be at risk as well as around 870 million people dependent on them would become vulnerable.
During the dry season, when there is water scarcity due to low rainfall, the melted water of the glaciers is used by the people to meet their daily requirements of water. However, with the retreating of glaciers, they cannot be used as a contingency against water shortage. Thus, the mountain communities have to think of other ways of managing water resources more judiciously.
Tipping point As glaciers shrink, the ice stored in them for a long period of time is melted. In the beginning, the large amount of water is released until there is peak water. Beyond this tipping point, the amount of melted water from the glacier reduces. With constant shrinking of the size of the glacier, the availability of freshwater for humans and other organisms is also affected.
Interconnectedness This risk is interconnected with the risks of unbearable heat, uninsurable future, and accelerating extinctions. As the emission of greenhouse gases is continuously increasing, it will lead to rise in global temperatures. This will, in turn, aggravate the unfavourable environmental conditions, posing risk to the survival of living organisms.
4. Unbearable heat Temperatures around the world are continuously rising due to human activities. This has resulted in severe heatwaves, which adversely impact the life of humans and other living organisms. Over the past couple of decades, extreme heat has already made the situation worse for the most vulnerable section of the society. Besides, there is high humidity, which prevents the sweat from evaporating. Sweating is necessary for the body to cool off during summers.
The high heat stress conditions are measured with the help of wet-bulb thermometer, which measures temperature with humidity. If such temperature goes beyond 35 °C and remains so for over six hours, normal human body cannot cool off itself by evaporating sweat. The absence of stable core body temperature can severely affect health.
It is imperative to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, but it is not sufficient. People may have to shift from unbearably hot areas. Those who cannot shift due to work or other obligations, they might have to change their lifestyle, i.e., their homes, their environments, and behaviours, to adapt to such harsh climatic conditions. Therefore, governments are required to take necessary steps to protect the people living in unliveable environs.
Tipping point Human beings who have more than 35 °C wet-bulb temperature for more than six hours are at the risk of severe health consequences. However, considering other factors, including age, physical activity, medical condition, etc., this threshold can be much lower.
Interconnectedness This risk is interconnected with the risk of uninsurable future, as people have to migrate to different places, i.e., new and less dangerous places. So, they get displaced and have to bear the consequences. Or, they may continue to remain in unliveable conditions, and may get exposed to more risk owing to social and economic factors.
5. Space debris Thousands of satellites have been sent in the space that now orbit the Earth. These satellites collect important information regarding weather, communications, and early warning signs of the disaster. Therefore, we live our lives more comfortably, conveniently, and safely. Due to satellites, we feel connected with one another. Satellites are an essential part and parcel of the modern society we live in. However, the increasing number of satellites poses a risk of space debris, which may threaten operational satellites as well as the safety of our orbit.
Space debris include a wide range of objects, including minute particles of paint, pieces of broken satellites, discarded rocket parts, huge metal pieces, etc. According to a recent research, more than 34,000 objects are orbiting in space. Out of this, only 25 per cent are operational satellites, while the remaining is space debris. It was also found that space has approximately 130 million pieces of tiny debris. These are not more than 1 cm long. Still, they can significantly damage the working satellites, as their speed of travelling is 25,000 km per hour.
The presence of space debris greatly increases the risk of satellite collisions in the orbital ‘highway’. With more and more satellites in space, these collisions can result in a chain reaction, leading to even larger amount of debris in the Earth’s orbit. This massive collection of debris will make our orbit unusable, thereby destructing the space infrastructure. Then, we would not be able to conduct any activities in space in the future.
Tipping point High density of objects in the Earth’s orbit can lead to cascading collisions. As a result, there will be infinite number of debris, thereby making the orbit unusable. So, weather forecast, climatic changes, early disaster warnings, etc., would not be feasible.
Interconnectedness This risk is connected with the risk of accelerating extinction. It the pollutants increase in the environment, they will eventually destroy the habitats of species as well as the satellite infrastructure. This risk is also connected with the risk of uninsurable future, as monitoring tools and risk-management techniques will also collapse and will eventually make living organisms unsafe and insecure.
6. Uninsurable future The purpose of insurance is to protect people from the risk of losses that occur due to disasters. The cost of such insurance is determined on the basis of the likelihood of the occurrence of such losses. The risk scenario is drastically changing owing to climate change. It is predicted that the number of disasters will be doubled by 2040, which, in turn, will increase the insurance prices. For example, since 2015, there has been 57 per cent increase in insurance prices for people living in places prone to natural disasters. Besides, certain insurance companies have restricted the types of damage that can be covered, while others have shutdown their business completely. Nevertheless, people continue to live in these areas due to social and economic pressures. Thus, these people are in a critical situation.
The areas wherein some risks are not covered by insurance, or areas where insurance is not provided, or areas where insurance coverage has extremely high price are regarded as ‘uninsurable’.
Notably, insurance is not a ticket to stay in dangerous places. It can be optimally used only when it is used together with other risk-reduction measures. The governments around the world are required to adopt revolutionary approaches so that the hidden societal and environmental causes of risk can be dealt with before insurance cover becomes inaccessible.
Tipping point In high-risk regions, the cost of insurance rises up due to increasing severe hazards. This insurance eventually becomes inaccessible here. After this point, people do not have any safety net at the time of disasters, which leads to chain reaction of socio-economic impacts.
Interconnectedness This risk is interconnected with the risk of unbearable heat in that people continue to stay in high-risk places owing to social and economic factors.
Conclusion
As we have seen the danger looming large over us, we must take appropriate and timely measures in order to enjoy a sustainable and secure future. Given the catastrophic impacts of heatwaves, serious and urgent actions have to be taken as soon as possible. The current scenario must be seen as a precursor of even harsher living conditions for all.
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