The Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations released the 28th edition of the World Population Prospects 2024 on July 11, 2024. This report provides population estimates from 1950 to the present for 237 countries or areas, based on analyses of historical demographic trends.
This latest evaluation incorporates data from 1,910 national population censuses conducted between 1950 and 2023. The 2024 revision further includes population projections for the year 2100, reflecting a range of plausible outcomes at global, regional, and national levels.
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) plays a crucial role in facilitating global cooperation and supporting countries in achieving their economic, social, and environmental objectives. Based in New York, UNDESA serves as a vital link between international policies and national actions, guiding nations in their efforts to meet the Sustainable Development Goals.
The World Population Prospects 2024 has used the analytical framework of the demographic transition—the historical shift towards longer life expectancies and smaller families—represented here by the timing when populations would reach their peak size. This approach would help to examine the variations in population trends across countries and regions today and offers insights into their future paths. The report also provides policy recommendations to help countries to prepare themselves for potential changes in population size, age structure, and spatial distribution that may differ significantly from their recent past.
Key Messages
The world’s population is likely to peak within the current century. The global population is expected to keep growing for the next 50 to 60 years. It is expected to reach a peak of approximately 10.3 billion people by the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After reaching this peak, it has been projected to begin decreasing, gradually declining to 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
A fourth of the global population lives in countries with peak or plateaued populations. As per the available data, the population has already peaked (before 2024) in 63 countries and areas that are home to around 28 per cent of the world’s population. In 48 countries and areas, accounting for 10 per cent of the global population (in 2024), the population size has been expected to peak between 2025 and 2054. In the remaining 126 countries and areas, populations are expected to keep growing until at least 2054. These countries may potentially reach their peak later in the century or even beyond 2100.
Women’s average childbearing has decreased by one child since 1990. The current global fertility rate is 2.25 live births per woman. This has been a decrease from 3.31 births in 1990. Over half of all countries and areas worldwide presently have fertility rates below 2.1 births per woman, the threshold needed for a population to remain stable over the long term without migration.
Early childbearing is a risk to the health of mothers and children. In 2024, approximately 4.7 million babies, or about 3.5 per cent of the global total, were born to mothers under the age of 18, with around 3,40,000 born to girls under the age of 15 years. This has serious consequences for the health and well-being of both young mothers and their children. Investing in youth education, particularly for girls and raising the ages of marriage and first childbearing in countries where these events typically happen early would have positive impacts on women’s health, education, and workforce participation.
Global life expectancy bounces back after the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2024, global life at birth reached 73.3 years, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. Further reductions in mortality would lead to an average life expectancy of approximately 77.4 years worldwide by 2054. Since 2022, life expectancy has returned to pre-COVID-19 levels in almost all the countries and regions. In 2023, the number of deaths among children under age 5 fell below 5 million for the first time in recent history.
Global population growth through mid-century will be driven by past momentum. The number of women aged between 15 and 49 years are expected to grow from about 2 billion in 2024 to a peak of about 2.2 billion by the late 2050s, driving ongoing population growth even if the number of births per woman drops to the replacement level. The youthful age structure of today, a result of past growth, would contribute to 79 per cent of the population increase through 2054, adding approximately 1.4 billion people.
Youthful populations and declining fertility offer limited time for economic gains from a growing workforce. In around 100 countries or areas, the working-age population (ages 20 to 64) has been projected to grow through 2054, creating a window of opportunity referred to as the demographic dividend. To take full advantage of this, countries must invest in education, health, and infrastructure. They should also implement reforms for generating jobs and enhance government efficiency.
People aged 65 and over will outnumber children under 18 by 2080. By the late 2070s, the global population aged 65 and older would reach 2.2 billion, surpassing the number of children under 18 years of age. By the mid-2030s, people aged 80 and above would outnumber infants (one year or younger), reaching 265 million. Countries that are further along in demographic aging should consider using technology for enhancing productivity across all age groups.
Immigration would be the key driver of future growth for some countries. In about 50 countries and areas, immigration has been expected to slow the decline in population size caused by persistently low fertility rates and an aging population. It is expected to be primary driver of population growth in 52 countries and areas through 2054 and in 62 through 2100, including Australia, Canada, and the US. However, in 14 countries and areas already facing ultra-low fertility, emigration would contribute to a further reduction in population size through 2054.
Gender equality and women’s empowerment is a key to managing population growth and decline. Discrimination and legal barriers have been restricting women and adolescents’ access to sexual and reproductive health services. Raising the legal marriage age and integrating family planning into primary health care could improve women’s education, economic participation and reduce childbearing. In countries where populations have already peaked or would peak in the next three decades, suitable policies, including paid parental leave, flexible working arrangements, affordable and high-quality childcare, comprehensive care for the aging population, and promotion of an equal distribution of caregiving and household responsibilities between men and women, could enhance women’s labour force participation, support families, encourage childbearing and increase economic security for both men and women in older age.
World Population Prospects Report 2024 on India and China
About India
- India’s population would peak in the early 2060s at around 1.7 billion and then decline by 12 per cent.
- India’s population was projected to be 1.45 billion in 2024, rising to 1.69 billion by 2054. After this peak, India’s population might decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100. Despite this decline, India would remain the most populous nation on Earth.
About China
- China’s population, 1.41 billion in 2024, has been projected to decrease to 1.21 billion by 2054 and might further decline to 633 million by 2100.
- China, the country with the world’s second-largest population, could experience the largest absolute population loss between 2024 and 2054, with a decrease of 204 million followed by Japan (21 million) and Russia (10 million). However, longer-term population projections for China are more uncertain.
- The significantly low population projection for China has been linked to the current fertility rate, which is approximately one birth per woman on average over a lifetime.
Conclusion
Overall, the 2024 Report underscores a complex demographic landscape characterised by both growth and decline across different regions. While global population growth will continue for several decades, the eventual decline poses challenges related to aging populations and potential labour shortages in some areas. Policymakers must address these dynamics through sustainable development strategies that accommodate changing population structures and ensure economic stability in the face of these demographic shifts. The findings emphasise the need for targeted interventions to manage fertility rates, enhance healthcare access, and support aging populations while leveraging the demographic dividend in younger regions.
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