Russia-North Korea Security Pact

31 August 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin in his two-day visit to North Korea, in June 2024, upgraded the alliance between two Cold War allies by signing a new security pact officially called, Treaty on the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, in which both Russia and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) have promised mutual assistance ‘in the event of aggression’.

North Korea is currently exerting more influence over Russia than it was during the Soviet era. Russia needs military equipment to continue its war in Ukraine, and North Korea, which is highly militarised and producing nuclear weapons, can readily supply it. Both North Korea and Russia are under harsh sanctions, albeit for different reasons and both disagree with the West. They now appear committed to resurrecting the alliance in order to resist the global order led by the West as a unit. The treaty highlights the changing dynamics in Northeast Asia and the emergence of two strategic triangles with the United States (US), South Korea, and Japan on one side and Russia, North Korea, and China at the other end.

Historical Background

North Korea came into existence in 1948 under Kim Jong Un’s grandfather, Kim II-Sung and Russia (then Soviet Union), was the first nation to recognise North Korea or the DPRK on October 12, 1948. Further, the Soviet Union and North Korea signed the Agreement on Economic and Cultural Cooperation on March 17, 1949, establishing a legal framework for further strengthening of their bilateral interaction. During Korean War of 1950–53, North Korea was supported by Soviet Union while South Korea was supported by US. Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin supported North Korea in the Korean War with the larger intent to set back the US in the cold war.

The two nations solidified their alliance in 1961, with the signing of the Russo-North Korea Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance, which like the latest pact contained a mutual defence agreement.

However, relation between the two countries became weak due to growing rift between China and Russia. In addition, the Soviet Union also established relations with South Korea, officially known as Republic of Korea (ROK), which further isolated North Korea in the region. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the 1961 Treaty was voided and relations between the two countries temporarily deteriorated.

With Vladimir Putin taking over as President of Russia in 2000, the relation between North Korea and Russia improved and both issued a joint criticism of US missile defence plans. In July 2000, Vladimir Putin himself visited Pyongyang, becoming the first Russian or Soviet head of state to ever visit North Korea and signed the New Friendship Treaty officially known as Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation, Good Neighbourliness which replaced the 1961 treaty. In August 2001, Kim Jong travelled Russia by train from Pyongyang.

As Kim Jong Un came to power in North Korea in 2012, the estimated US$ 11 billion debt of North Korea was written off by 90 per cent by Russia. However, despite its cordial relations with North Korea, Russia still supported UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions against North Korea’s nascent nuclear weapons and missile programme twice in 2016 and 2017.

North Korea, in order to accelerate its nuclear programme, attempted to improve diplomatic ties with the US and ROK, along with maintaining relations with China and Russia. As North Korea accelerated its nuclear and missile tests, Russia supported UNSC sanctions that include limiting oil supplies and cracking down on the country’s labour exports.

In 2019, Kim Jong Un visited Russia, but the results were not substantial. Later in 2022, North Korea supported Russia, blaming US for the Russia-Ukraine conflict and claimed that because of US led-West’s “hegemonic policy”, Russia had to defend itself by sending troops to Ukraine. It also joined Russia and Syria in recognising the independence of two Russia-backed separatists’ regions of eastern Ukraine. In response, Russia and China backed North Korea in nuclear missile testing by blocking US led efforts to strengthen sanctions on North Korea in the UNSC.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu visited North Korea in July 2023, where he attended a military parade highlighting long-range missiles designed against the US. Kim Jong Un reciprocated this visit by travelling to Russia, where the two nations continued their discussions on military supplies and collaborations.

About the Treaty

This treaty replaces the 1961 and 2000 treaties and the 2000 and 2001 Moscow and Pyongyang declarations. This pact is considered of high importance as it includes various spheres such as education, science, technology, connectivity, health, and labour. There are two points to note here. First, the term “comprehensive strategic partnership” formally means the highest level of relations between countries, and if we compare the way these ties were described before, we can say that “we have jumped over several steps, or even a whole flight of stairs.” The previous treaty dated February 9, 2000, only focused “on friendship, good-neighbourly relations and cooperation.” However, this new agreement is open-ended (Article 23), which implies that the trend will persist at least in the short, if not medium, term.

The major highlights of the pact are as follows:

Article 1 outlines a relationship of comprehensive strategic partnership, while Article 2 defines the norms of communication. It also mentions the aspiration for global strategic stability and a new just world order.
Article 3 says that “in the event of an imminent threat of armed aggression against one of the Parties, the latter shall, at the request of one of the Parties, immediately operationalize bilateral channels for consultations in order to coordinate their positions and agree on possible practical measures to assist each other in eliminating the emerging threat.”
Article 4 that made waves in the Western media is “in the event that one of the Parties is subjected to an armed attack by an individual country or several countries and thus finds itself in a state of war, the other Party shall immediately provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter and in accordance with the laws of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Russian Federation.” Such wording de facto implies a military alliance, although the Russian leadership shuns this term, emphasising that the treaty is not directed against third countries.
Article 5 of the treaty binds the parties “not to make friends against each other.” More precisely, “not to enter into agreements with a third country that infringe on the sovereignty, security, territorial inviolability, the right to free choice and development of political, social, economic and cultural systems or other key interests of the counterparty,” not to take part in such actions or allow territories to be used for such purposes. However, there is no mention of reunification of Korea.
Article 6 affirms the parties' commitment to peace-loving policies, while Article 7 advocates for consultation and cooperation within international organisations like the United Nations and its specialised agencies.
Article 8 mentions that along with security guarantees, Russia is open to a military-technical partnership which formalises Russia’s ammunition imports from North Korea, which is in itself a radical move and if it happens it will clearly violate the UNSC sanctions regime on DPRK.
Article 10 says that both countries shall promote the expansion and development of cooperation in trade and economic, investment, and scientific and technological fields.
As per Article 11 and Article 13, there shall be formalisation of labour mobility from North Korea to Russia, apart from the security sphere as Russia lacks labour force. Although, both countries have been denying any increase of labour force from North Korea to Russia, estimates say the opposite.
As per Article 12 and Article 14, there shall be increased emphasis on cooperation in the fields of health, standards, education, and labour mobility between both countries. Article 14, also mentions a framework for labour mobility.
As per Article 15, there shall be cooperation between legislative, executive, and law enforcement agencies of both the countries.
As per Article 17, there shall be cooperation on international terrorism, extremism, human trafficking, and illicit circulation of goods and funds between both countries.
As per Article 18 and Article 20, there shall be cooperation in the fields of international information security and countering disinformation between both countries.
Article 19 is dedicated to mutual promotion of language learning and the literature of the two nations, as well as to raise awareness of each other in general.

Significance of the Treaty

The summit is significant in a way that it is symbolic of strengthening of alliances between Russia and North Korea in confronting the US and its allies. This time both the nations have been quite clear of their vision and priorities which might trouble the US.
Despite warnings from the G7 nations, in Italy, the two countries are continuing arms cooperation. North Korea supported Russia’s policies, including Ukraine war, and was reciprocated by Russia giving military-technical support.
Both countries are planning to establish “alternative mechanisms of trade and mutual settlements” which directly pressurise the already falling-apart global sanctions regimes.
Most importantly, the signing of this treaty pledges mutual assistance in times of war or attacks in future. However, it is still to be seen that how North Korea will benefit from this partnership and is able to develop nuclear weapons and weapons delivery systems against the UNSC sanctions. It is also expected that Russia might help North Korea in this regard by transferring sensitive military technology.
Russia, on its part, is looking forward to DPRK as a partner who can supply it with ammunition and labour. As earlier balance of power was against Russia’s interests in the Asia-Pacific, this rapprochement is more of a defensive move as Russia has good relations with Japan and South Korea. After, Russia’s war on Ukraine, the relations with Japan have gone down while there are still functional relations with South Korea. Russia is moving cautiously as after the pact, South Korea is reconsidering its position on sending lethal arms to Ukraine. This treaty formalises Russia’s ties with North Korea by adding pillars to their partnership and bringing North Korea out of isolation.

Implications of this Pact

The strengthening of ties between Russia and North Korea has significant implications in the world, particularly South Asia, both in terms of security and broader strategic interests.

Some of the broader implications are:

Japan sees this pact as a threat to environment of security as it has already tried to negotiate with the settlement of the northern territories issue with Russia and the abduction of Japanese citizens by North Korea. Thus, this partnership ceases any further hopes of making progress on either issue for Japan. Japan will further strengthen their alliance with the US.
South Korea will also follow Japan’s footsteps as both Japan and South Korea, in order to broaden their security horizons, became NATO observers in 2022, concerning Russian aggression and China’s growing international assertiveness. In 2023, both of them have already condemned and issued a joint statement against increasing military exercises between Russia and North Korea, and the transfer of North Korean weapons to Russia against Ukraine. Soon after the signing of security pact by Russia-North Korea, South Korean government which earlier committed to supply only non-lethal weapons to Ukraine revised its statement by stating “any decision to send lethal aid to Kyiv would be contingent upon Russia’s actions vis-a-vis North Korea.”
Japan-South Korea-US security co-operation will be stronger with common interests and allies because the US has publicly reaffirmed its commitment to its allies.
There is a threat of coming of authoritarian powers together which can risk global security and aggravates the risk of nuclear proliferation. The pact might encourage similar partnerships. All these developments pose major threat to West.
China has not given any public statements or criticisms. Being a formal ally to North Korea and a strategic partner to Russia, China would not underestimate Russia’s influence over North Korea especially military influence. Also, China could not ignore and would be concerned about a greater Western footprint in Asia. Being careful with both Russia and North Korea, China would also try to influence and improve relations with Japan and South Korea, to drive them away from the US.
Canada being an active member of a multinational endeavour called Operation NEON that supports the UNSC sanctions on North Korea and is a participant in the United Nations Command in South Korea since the 1950s (Korean War), will strongly exert pressure on North Korea to renounce its plans to develop weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). Meanwhile, Russia will be trying its best to lift the UN sanctions from North Korea. But overall, there is a huge risk of development of WMDs and possibility of breaking of the UNSC sanctions by North Korea and Russia.

Implications of the Russia-North Korea Pact on India

In this polarising scenario, India may face greater challenges concerning its diplomacy and foreign policy.

Some of the key implications are:

Regional security dynamics in Asia The Russia-North Korea pact could shift the balance of power in Asia, particularly in Northeast Asia, which is already a volatile region due to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. For India, which has its security concerns linked to China’s influence and the overall stability of Asia, this alliance adds complexity to the regional security environment.

China’s influence India views the Russia-North Korea relationship with concern because of the potential for greater Chinese influence over North Korea, given China’s existing close ties with both Moscow and Pyongyang. This triangular relationship could marginalise India’s strategic interests in the region, especially in terms of countering China’s assertiveness.

Impact on India’s strategic partnerships India’s relations with Russia, a long-standing ally, could be affected by Moscow’s closer ties with Pyongyang. While India-Russia relations remain strong, particularly in defence and energy sectors, India may find itself in a delicate position, balancing its strategic interests with its opposition to North Korea’s nuclear programme. India may need to carefully navigate its diplomatic ties with Russia, ensuring that its relationship is not strained by Russia’s engagement with North Korea, which is seen as a global pariah due to its nuclear weapons programme.

Recalibration of diplomatic strategy India’s policy towards North Korea has traditionally been cautious, maintaining minimal diplomatic engagement while adhering to international sanctions. The evolving Russia-North Korea relationship could prompt India to reassess its approach. India might consider recalibrating its diplomatic strategy towards North Korea, balancing between maintaining international pressure on Pyongyang and ensuring that its own strategic interests in Asia are not compromised.

Conclusion

The security pact reflects the change in the status quo in Northeast Asia, more inclination of Russian Foreign Policy towards the Asia Pacific, aiming to accelerate the connectivity with the Russian Far Eastern Regions and the North Korea. Putin’s visit to Vietnam after signing the security pact highlights the rising profile of Asia-Pacific in Russia’s strategic calculus. The military-technical partnership between Russia-North Korea will lead to militarisation of an already securitised region.

North Korea, on the other hand, has accomplished a strategic partnership with Russia and also its objective of circumventing the sanctions regime. By forming security ties with some of the major powers in the Asia Pacific region, Russia and China, North Korea has further strengthened its military modernisation plans.

In expectations of a secure future in the Asia Pacific region, Russia has secured a deal for its current needs at the same time keeping its strategic interests in Far East protected. On the other hand, North Korea is looking forward for more weightage in any possible negotiations in the future from Russia. Overall, we can say it is a win-win situation for both countries.

Way forward As far as India is concerned, the pact poses several strategic and diplomatic challenges. As the relationship between Moscow and Pyongyang deepens, India will need to carefully monitor the situation and adjust its policies to safeguard its regional and global interests. Balancing its long-standing relationship with Russia against the potential threats posed by North Korea’s actions will be a key diplomatic challenge for India in the coming years.